Friday, January 1, 2016


Goal of single Asean market with gross domestic product (GDP) of $2.5 trillion & trade of $1 trillion will take many years, achieved gradually, step by step, sector by sector.
AEC 2015' is no longer a slogan but a reality that the region's governments, businesses and people will have to embrace before the year is out. How ready are we? 
6/01/2015 
Adapted from article by Asia Focus Team 

By the end of this year the 10 countries that make up the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) are supposed to join forces as a single economic community, the Asean Economic Community (AEC). 

The AEC was supposed to have come into being four days ago but members realised four years ago that the deadline would never be met, so they made a cosmetic change. No one believes the new deadline of Dec 31, 2015 will be met either. Even then, there will be questions about how many will be ready to cope with the impact. 

On paper, no one doubts the potential of a single market with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of $2.5 trillion and intra-regional trade of $1 trillion. But reaching the full potential the AEC offers could take many years. 

The goal of Asean economic integration is to become a single production base where goods can be manufactured anywhere and distributed efficiently to anywhere within the region. Asean needs to work towards the goal of freer movement of labour andcapital, but in reality, integration and the free flow of resources will only be gradual,step by step, sector by sector. 

For now, opinions are mixed on how far Asean countries have come in doing everything necessary to make the big first step. Governments and the Aseansecretariat feel that more than 80% of their goals have been achieved, but the private sector does not see evidence of much progress when it comes to making it easier to do business across borders. Then again, some businesses, especially smaller ones, have done little or nothing to prepare themselves. 

So far, Asean overall has progressed to a level of 80% in terms of
 eliminating tariffson goods traded within the region. Some items remain on sensitive lists in each country, for instance coffee beans, copra, potatoes and cut flowers in Thailand, but these items will have tariffs reduced to zero by the end of 2015. Asean in general has been on the right track to eliminate all tariffs by the end of 2015. 

Only 50% of businesses in Asean are estimated to have taken advantage of tariffreductions under the regional FTA [Free Trade Agreement] and governments have not been active enough to encourage the private sector to utilise them. Required harmonisation of standards and regulations still has to be carried out and that shouldencourage more businesses to apply for Asean privileges. 

Even though tariffs have been largely reduced, non-tariff barriers to trade (NTBs) are still used widely in the form of quotas and licences, although countries are required toscale down and totally remove them under the free trade agreement (FTA). An example of an NTB is inconsistent and unreasonable labelling and packagingrequirements that impedes free trade across Asean.  

Objectives such as free movement of skilled labour and free movement of capital andinvestment are far from having been achieved. 
  
To be competitive under the free flow of labour in Asean, Thailand needs to improve education for eight professions: doctors, dentists, nurses, engineers, architects,accountants, surveyors and the tourism industry. 

In terms of investment and services, liberalisation of 128 sectors was scheduled to be completed by the end of 2014 but is now delayed to this year. So far, only somesectors such as retail, wholesaling and transport have been opened while banking andinsurance have not been opened. 

The benefits of an integrated financial services sector and capital markets should be recognised as fundamental. Asean leaders are trying to protect and develop their nascent financial services and capital markets sectors. A lot of time will have been wasted before these minor markets are seen to have failed to attract capital andinvestment because of their lack of size, liquidity and recognised regulatorystandards. 

In terms of which countries have made the most progress toward the AEC, Singapore is the most advanced. It has always been a free and open economy. Other countries are in various stages of being ready, with certain sectors, often termed strategic, still being protected. The least ready are the least developed countries (LDC) that fear being overwhelmed by more efficient neighbours. 

The automobile industry in Thailand is one success story. It has benefited from being a single production base with parts from other Asean countries able to cross borderswithout tariffs and other impediments.

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